Niger, Senegal and Rwanda will be the fastest growing economies in 2024

by MMC
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The World Bank released its Global Economic Outlook report this week. It says Niger, Senegal and Rwanda will be among the fastest growing economies in the world in 2024.

The oil sector is driving Niger’s growth, which is expected to reach 12.5% ​​this year. This will make it the second fastest growing economy in the world, after Guyana (38.2%). Guyana also has a thriving oil sector. Three more African countries will join the top 10 fastest-growing economies: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast and Ethiopia.

This reflects the expectation that Africa’s largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – will slow down the rest of the region. Meanwhile, economies that do not have many natural resources will grow faster than the regional average of 3.8%. Excluding Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, sub-Saharan Africa will grow 5% this year.

Projected high-growth economies in sub-Saharan Africa for 2024 are Niger (12.8%), Senegal (8.8%), Rwanda (7.5%), DRC (6.5%), Côte Ivory Coast (6.5%), Ethiopia (6.4%). %), Benin (6%), Uganda (6%), Guinea (5.9%), Guinea Bissau (5.8%), Tanzania (5.6%) and Liberia (5 .4%).

Nigeria, South Africa and Angola will see some improvement from last year’s weak growth. In 2023, they only increased by 1.8%, less than the previous year. The World Bank blamed Nigeria’s currency reform, Angola’s oil production deficit, and South Africa’s energy and transportation problems for the situation.

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 2.9% in 2023. It was 3.7% and 4.4% in the previous two years. The three largest economies had a strong impact on this decline. But other countries also saw slower growth, at 3.9%. This was due to conflict, weak demand and policy changes aimed at controlling inflation.

Two African economies will experience a contraction this year: Equatorial Guinea (-6.1%) and Sudan (0.6%). Both countries face high costs of living and increasing poverty rates. Sudan’s GDP contracted by more than 18% in 2023 due to the war raging in the country since April. The war has killed more than 9,000 people and displaced more than 5 million people in one of the world’s poorest countries. The conflict has brought Sudan’s stagnant economy to its knees, blocking much trade and transport, hampering agriculture, interrupting the payment of many salaries and causing extensive damage to infrastructure. The Sudanese pound has plummeted, losing 50% of its value since the start of the war.

In October, the IMF predicted that the economy of Equatorial Guinea, OPEC’s smallest member by capacity, would fall back into recession. Equatorial Guinea experienced a seven-year recession until 2021 due to a fall in oil prices further exacerbated by OPEC production cuts. The devastation of Bata, the largest city and commercial capital, in 2021 also contributed to the slowdown. The economy gained 3.2% in 2022, but fell further last year due to falling oil production.

The report also warns of the risk of shocks from other locations. For example, a conflict in the Middle East could raise the price of oil. This would make food more expensive and disrupt supply chains leading to Africa.

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