Political analysts react to deadly Hamas attack

by MMC
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  • Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group said that “the massive attacks by Hamas leaders against Israel… are nothing less than 9/11 in Israel.”
  • The violence also “poured cold water on the possibility of an accelerated Israeli-Saudi normalization process,” said Sanam Vakil of Chatham House.
  • “The war between Israel and Hamas is the logical outcome of 50 years of failed military policies,” Dan Steinbock of Difference Group said in an email to CNBC.

Children are seen in a destroyed house after Israeli attacks in Gaza City, Gaza, October 7, 2023.

Mustafa Hassona | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Whether it’s “9/11 in Israel” or the culmination of a “50-year time bomb,” political analysts are responding to the Israel-Hamas conflict and contemplating what happens next as the fighting continues. extend over a second day.

At dawn on Saturday, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a infiltration into Israel by land, sea and air. The attack took place hours after a barrage of rockets was fired from Gaza towards Israel. The offensive occurred during a major Jewish holiday, and a day after 50th anniversary of Arab-Israeli War.

The attack “certainly didn’t come out of nowhere,” said Dan Steinbock, founder of international consultancy Difference Group.

Massive attacks by Hamas leaders against Israel… This is nothing less than September 11 in Israel.

Ian Bremmer

President of the Eurasia Group

“The war between Israel and Hamas is the logical outcome of 50 years of failed military policies,” Steinbock said in an email to CNBC. He added that the attack marked the first major direct conflict on Israeli territory since the founding of the country.

“This is a game changer in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” Steinbock added.

At the time of publication, at least 250 Israelis were reported killed and more than 1,860 injured, according to NBC News. The Palestinian Ministry of Health, for its part, recorded 256 deaths and 1,790 injured in Gaza.

“Massive attacks by Hamas leaders against Israel… This is nothing less than 9/11 in Israel,” declared the president of the Eurasia groupIan Bremmer, in reference to the scale of the attack.

Israel finds itself in its ‘strongest geopolitical position’ in decades, says Bremmer said in a video analysis, elaborating on the normalization of relations between Israel and various nations. Bremmer cited the Abraham Accords, which opened diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Morocco and Bahrain. More recently, we are talking about potentially normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was possible.

“And if you’re the leadership of Hamas, refusing to accept Israel’s right to exist… watching the politics of the region turn against you… Well, that’s certainly part of the reason why “Hamas would have decided to engage in this unprecedented level of strikes against Israel,” Bremmer concluded.

The attack also marked a “massive intelligence and defense failure for Israel,” Bremmer stressed, saying it was an oversight resulting from the government’s new judicial reforms.

from Israel defense system is characterized by its “Iron Dome”, an anti-rocket air defense system that has protected its densely populated areas since 2011. The dome claims to have a 96% success rateHowever, some Hamas rockets bypassed defenses and hit buildings inside Israel.

Rockets launched towards Israel from the northern Gaza Strip and the response of the Israeli missile defense system known as Iron Dome leave marks in the sky on May 14, 2021 in Gaza City, Gaza.

Fatima Chbair | Getty Images

For months, Israel has been plagued by political unrest following controversial judicial reforms pushed by the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

And this, according to Bremmer, “clearly distracted Israeli intelligence. It also distracted the Israeli military,” he said, many of whom said they were not willing to serve in the army if the judicial overhaul continued.

And what does the fighting mean for both sides’ relations with their counterparts in the Middle East?

On the one hand, analysts expect the conflict derail a US-brokered negotiation between Israel and Saudi Arabia to establish formal relations between them.

“The violence has certainly dampened the possibility of an accelerated Israeli-Saudi normalization process and reminded the international community that the question of Palestine requires urgent conflict management and mediation,” said Sanam Vakil, program director Middle East and North Africa from Chatham House. .

From what we’ve seen so far… (it’s) a war between Gaza and Israel. So far, there is no indication that Iran and Hezbollah are considering joining. As long as this remains the case, the overall impact remains limited.

Zvi Eckstein

professor emeritus of economics at Tel Aviv University

Just a few weeks ago, Saudi Arabia informed the Biden administration of its decision to freeze efforts to normalize relations with Israel. According to the Saudi newspaper Elaphan Israeli official attributed the suspension to the refusal of the Israeli government to make the slightest concession to the Palestinians.

Israeli soldiers head south near Ashkelon, Israel, Saturday, October 7, 2023.

Ohad Zwigenberg | P.A.

“The Israeli-Saudi deal, which was about to be concluded, is now complete,” Bremmer said. “If something Hamas wanted was accomplished, that would be the most important thing,” he said.

Saudi Arabia said it did not support the attacks and joined global calls for de-escalation.

“The kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of an explosion of the situation due to the continuation of the occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the repetition of systematic provocations against their sacred values,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said. said in a statement SATURDAY.

“From what we see so far… (it) is a war between Gaza and Israel. So far there are no signs that Iran and Hezbollah are considering to join them. As long as that is the case, the global impact is limited,” Zvi Eckstein, former deputy governor of the Bank of Israel, told CNBC via email.

An Israeli soldier mans a position in the northern Israeli town of Metula, bordering Lebanon, October 8, 2023.

Jalaa Marey | AFP | Getty Images

Eckstein, who is currently professor emeritus of economics at Tel Aviv University, said he does not see a global impact comparable to that of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

However, that may not last long, if it turns out that Iran participated in the attacks, Bremmer said.

“Certainly, if it turns out that Iran helped plan these Hamas attacks, that would be a game-changer and would likely lead to Israeli strikes against the Iranian military,” he said.

Smoke rises over Gaza City on October 7, 2023 during an Israeli airstrike.

Mahmud hams | AFP | Getty Images

“The broader question is whether or not we envisage continued military collaboration with Hamas, from Iran, from Syria… which could of course lead to an extension of the war.”

On Sunday, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah confirmed it had launched attacks on three sites in the Shebaa Farms, a strip of land at the intersection of the Lebanese-Syrian border and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. THE Israeli Defense Force confirmed that he had retaliated and “hit Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure.”

Israeli airstrikes on the National Islamic Bank of Gaza destroy buildings and neighborhoods in the Rimal district of Gaza City, Gaza, October 8, 2023.

Ali Jadallah | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

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